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By Josef Settele

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Observed species distribution (50 × 50 km² UTM grid; black circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche (orange areas) Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange – unsuitable; green – hostile; black line – modelled threshold GRAS (A1FI) BAMBU (A2) SEDG (B1) Erynnis marloyi (Hesperiidae) 2050 2080 35 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 2050 Carcharodus alceae (ESPER, 1870) – Mallow Skipper 2080 36 © Chris van Swaay Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 3884 (30 9%) -568 (-4 52%) BAMBU 2554 (20 32%) -1255 (-9 98%) GRAS 2940 (23 39%) -1476 (-11 74%) SEDG 1889 (15 03%) -2106 (-16 75%) BAMBU -222 (-1 77%) -4815 (-38 3%) GRAS -1188 (-9 45%) -6139 (-48 83%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’×10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12571 cells) The Mallow Skipper is a butterfly of warm, grassy places, usually with rough vegetation.

Climatic conditions: orange – unsuitable; green – hostile; black line – modelled threshold GRAS (A1FI) BAMBU (A2) SEDG (B1) Pyrgus cacaliae (Hesperiidae) 2050 2080 63 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 2050 Pyrgus centaureae (RAMBUR, 1840) – Northern Grizzled Skipper 2080 64 © Bernard Fransen Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -1313 (-22 8%) -1372 (-23 82%) BAMBU -1446 (-25 1%) -1465 (-25 43%) GRAS -1565 (-27 17%) -1588 (-27 57%) SEDG -1836 (-31 87%) -2073 (-35 99%) BAMBU -2932 (-50 9%) -3022 (-52 47%) GRAS -3722 (-64 62%) -3811 (-66 16%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’×10’ grid cells; present niche space: 5760 cells) The Northern Grizzled Skipper prefers damp, moist and wet places.

Climatic conditions: orange – unsuitable; green – hostile; black line – modelled threshold GRAS (A1FI) BAMBU (A2) SEDG (B1) Pyrgus sidae (Hesperiidae) 2050 2080 59 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 2050 Pyrgus andromedae (WALLENGREN, 1853) – Alpine Grizzled Skipper 2080 60 © Kars Veling Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG -432 (-22 37%) -517 (-26 77%) BAMBU -280 (-14 5%) -356 (-18 44%) GRAS -511 (-26 46%) -546 (-28 28%) SEDG -425 (-22 01%) -586 (-30 35%) BAMBU -306 (-15 85%) -542 (-28 07%) GRAS -584 (-30 24%) -777 (-40 24%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’×10’ grid cells; present niche space: 1931 cells) The Alpine Grizzled Skipper occurs in damp, moist, grassy places, often near streams or bogs in the Alps and Pyrenees.

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