By Anita Ghatak
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Extra resources for Development Macroeconomics: Essays in Memory of Anita Ghatak (Routledge Studies in Development Economics)
Their analysis, which examines annual log real output per capita for 15 OECD economies from 1900 to 1987, leads to two basic conclusions about international output ﬂuctuations. First, they ﬁnd very little evidence of convergence across the economies. Per capita output deviations do not appear to disappear systematically over time. Second, they ﬁnd that there is strong evidence of common stochastic elements in long-run economic ﬂuctuations across countries. As a result, economic growth cannot be explained exclusively by idiosyncratic, country-speciﬁc factors.
1986) ‘Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show,’ American Economic Review, 76 (5): 1072–85. J. N. (1988) ‘Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: reply’, American Economic Review, vol. 78 (5): 1155–9. A. and Wolﬀ, E N. ; London: MIT Press. Beelen, E. and Verspagen, B. (1994) ‘The role of convergence in trade and sectoral growth’ in J. Fagerberg, B. Verspagen and N. von Tunzelmann (eds) The Dynamics of Technology, Trade and Growth, Aldershot: E. Elgar, pp.
An initial approach to this question of convergence is to regress growth rate on initial level (usually in log form) of per capita income (or equivalently regressing log of ﬁnal output per capita on initial output per capita). 88. In reporting this result, Baumol recognised a range of drawbacks with the data used. However, the main drawback is the manner in which the sample of countries was constructed, which was eﬀectively by reference to high levels of income towards the end of the period. This was heavily criticised by De Long (1988) on the ground that Baumol’s regression uses an ex post sample of rich and successfully developed countries, while those nations that have not converged are excluded from the sample.