Download NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 by Mark Gertler, Kenneth Rogoff PDF

By Mark Gertler, Kenneth Rogoff

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual offers pioneering paintings in macroeconomics by way of best educational researchers addressed to a wide viewers of public policymakers in addition to to the tutorial group. every one paper is through reviews and dialogue to offer a extra whole context for the perspectives expressed. The 2004 version contains a diversity of papers geared toward offering coherent and informative solutions to such very important questions because the impact of federal govt debt on rates of interest; the stochastic measurement of the yankee financial system; the position of expertise as a resource of monetary fluctuations; and the interplay of capital flows, monetary coverage, and financial regulations in constructing nations, rising markets, and OECD international locations.

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The types of friction that one would need to introduce into general equilibrium models to explain the when-it-rains-it-pours syndrome identified in this paper should be the subject of further research. In sum, we hope that the empirical regularities identified in this paper will stimulate theoreticians to reconsider existing models that may be at odds with the facts and empiricists to revisit the data with more refined techniques. 6. Appendix Table 15 shows the data sources for our data set. Table 16 lists the countries included in our study.

A positive correlation). 13 Of course, changes in domestic credit growth can be seen as the counterpart of movements in short-term interest rates, with a reduction (an increase) in domestic credit growth leading to an increase (reduction) in short-term interest rates. In addition to computing the correlations indicated in Table 3, we will attempt to establish whether monetary policy is procyclical, acyclical, or countercyclical by estimating Taylor rules for every country for which data are available (see Taylor, 1993).

The evidence is particularly strong for middle-high-income countries (with 10 out of the 12 positive correlations being significant). We do not pretend, of course, to draw inferences on causality from pairwise correlations, but it is not unreasonable to expect that a plausible causal relationship may run from capital flows to fiscal spending—an issue that clearly warrants further study. More surprising is the evidence suggesting that the relationship between the fiscal spending cycle and capital flows is also important for low income countries (most of which have little access to international capital markets).

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