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By Rayleigh.

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The financial markets rely on the release of accurate, consistent and timely information if they are to deliver an efficient and equitable outcome. However, the application of this principle appears to limit a bank’s capacity to provision against losses which it believes it might incur in the future. Only in those situations where banks could point to a specific event which suggested a default was likely was the decision to provision uncontroversial. As a result, banks may be unable to prepare in a boom for losses that they think might arise in a bust.

The default approach to thinking about developments in financial markets almost surely influenced the focus of policymakers—if you believed that financial markets were efficient, that pricing anomalies would be arbitraged away, that agents were rational and well-informed—then you would not likely spend much time looking for problems that were unlikely to exist; in effect out of mind, and therefore out of sight too. The former Chairman of the Financial Services Authority Lord Adair Turner has identified the paradigm 38 Macroeconomic Policy after the Crash problem as a key factor in the failure of the pre-crisis policy regime to respond to events (Turner 2009b): We need to build a more stable system for the future.

Beyond cost savings, the British enjoy another advantage: While our regulatory bodies are often competing to be the toughest cop on the street, the British regulatory body seems to be more collaborative and solutions-oriented. That race to the bottom is a classic example of a coordination problem, with each actor taking what they believed to be privately rational actions, and illustrates the need for a global regulatory response to the crisis, to create a level playing field. ’ Johnson and Kwak argue that Wall Street was able to neuter effective reform and regulation of the system in boom and bust, and convince politicians of the imperative of bailouts in the nadir of the crisis and then lobby against more intrusive regulation in the years that followed.

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