By Beth Asch
Estimates the results of 3 worksforce-shaping regulations between DoD employees coated by way of the Civil provider Retirement approach.
Read or Download The Effects of the Workforce-Shaping Incentives on Civil Service Retirements: Evidence from the Department of Defense PDF
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Extra resources for The Effects of the Workforce-Shaping Incentives on Civil Service Retirements: Evidence from the Department of Defense
When individuals are assumed to be offered early retirement,we find a substantial increase in the average probability. 5 percent—a doubling of the rate—at age 59. Offering both the buyout and the early retirement program increases the average predicted probabilities even more. 30 Conclusions • Buyouts are estimated to have sizable effects on incentive to retire and on predicted retirement rates among those eligible for optional retirement • Effects of buyouts are more modest among those eligible for early retirement • The maximum retention allowance reduces by 60% the estimated incentive to retire and by 20% the predicted retirement rate among those eligible for optional retirement • Early retirement benefits have large estimated effects on the incentive to retire early and on predicted early retirement rates • Use of these programs as workforce-shaping tools has been limited 31 2/13/2003 In summary, we find that retention allowances, early retirement, and the special buyout are predicted to have sizable effects on retirement rates among those covered by CSRS.
The predictions are made at the mean values of the explanatory variations. One model includes dummy variables representing the employee’s age and the other model excludes the age dummies. When the age dummies are included, the model predicts actual retirement rates nearly perfectly. The good fit is not surprising because the age dummy variables capture factors that vary with age, such as health status, but are not included as explanatory variables in our model. The model that excludes the age dummies shows how well the incentive variable explains actual age variations in retirement.
S. Office of Personnel Management, The Fact Book, 2001 Edition: Federal Civilian Workforce Statistics, 2001a. S. Office of Personnel Management, Human Resources Flexibilities and Authorities in the Federal Government, 2001b. S. Senate, Committee on Governmental Affairs, Senator Fred Thompson, Government at the Brink, Volume 1, June 2001.