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By Roger Cliff

China's economic system is predicted to develop over the following twenty years at a fee that would make it higher than the U.S. economic system on the finish of that interval. this implies that China has the industrial power to be a U.S. army rival by means of the 12 months 2020. yet can it develop into the sort of rival? at the present, China's army is essentially in line with Fifties Soviet know-how. to supply weaponry technologically equivalent to U.S. weaponry by means of 2020, China must enhance its technological features via inner, defense-industry efforts and/or different avenues: direct transfers of army expertise from in another country, imports of elements and gear, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. of those 3, the 3rd, diffusion from civilian industries, is the main promising over the longer term. This record explores this selection, studying China's present advertisement know-how in 8 industries (microelectronics, desktops, telecommunications apparatus, nuclear energy, biotechnology, chemical substances, aviation, and area) that experience the main strength for aiding army know-how improvement, and assessing the clients for technological growth (in phrases of functions, attempt, incentives, and associations) over the subsequent 10 to twenty years. The findings recommend that even supposing China's army usually are not the U.S. military's technological equivalent through 2020, the U.S. nonetheless needs to organize for a chinese language army whose functions will gradually enhance within the subsequent 10 to twenty years, possibly constructing features in convinced niches that might current problems for the U.S. army in a few potential-conflict situations.

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Layman 1996, p. 13; Technology Review 1992, p. 19; Futures 1989, p. 227; Saywell 1998, p. ) China’s Current Civilian Technology 23 CHEMICALS Like biotechnology, chemical technology also has obvious military implications, in this case in the form of chemical weapons. China is believed to already have an advanced chemical weapon capability, but chemical technology has military significance in a number of other areas, including the manufacture of explosives, missile propellants, electronics, and advanced materials.

Of these, 82 percent graduated, so about 48 percent of current 20 to 21 year olds have received a middle school education. Of these, only 47 percent went on to enroll in high school, including technical and vocational high schools. Eighty-eight percent of these graduated, so about 20 percent of current 20 to 21 year olds have received a high school education. (State Statistical Bureau 1996, pp. 632, 637; Ministry of Science and Technology 1999, pp. ) Higher education has been the most restricted part of China’s educational system.

SUMMARY China has significant production capabilities in all but one (biotechnology) of the eight major industries examined. However, China also has significant limitations to its capabilities in all eight. China’s open economic policies and the globalization of production have given China access to all but the most advanced dual-use technologies, and it assembles many high-technology goods, but in most cases China has yet to capture the critical technologies embodied in these goods. Thus, for example, while Chinese companies are able to assemble microcomputers comparable to those produced by IBM or Compaq, they cannot produce those computers without imported microchips.

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